发薪日贷款:特点、争论和启示

发薪日贷款在美国大行其道，其简单便利性使穷人也能够获得信贷服务；但是另一方面，由于借款人缺乏自控，不得不连续借贷，从而陷入债务危机，这也导致了政府监管的不断升级。经济学家对发薪日贷款是否改善借款人的福利进行了实证研究，找到了正反两方面的证据。发薪日贷款使我们认识到方便易得的信贷服务的两面性，对我国正在进行农村金融改革有重要的启示。     

农户借贷需求行为的经济学分析与实证——以中部某省750家农户调查为例

发展我国农村金融必须首先正确认识我国农村客观环境下农户的资金需求情况。本文以包括生产和消费两方面活动的农户经济行为为基础建立Probit模型,利用中部某省辖内九个地区2008年12月份750户农户的调查数据,分析农户借贷行为决策及其影响因素,并得出相应的启示和建议。     

山东省农业贷款与农业产业发展关系的实证分析

近年来,党中央、国务院对农业发展给予了高度重视。而农业的发展离不开金融机构的支持,农业贷款与农业发展之间存在紧密联系。对山东省1980～2005年期间农业贷款和农业产业发展的关系进行实证分析。结果表明山东省农业贷款与农业发展之间存在单向因果关系,该地区的农业贷款对农业产业的发展有促进作用,而农业生产总值的增长对农业贷款增加的推动作用则不明显。     

固定利率住房抵押贷款对我国商业银行利率风险的影响

我国利率市场化改革正在稳步地向前推进,利率风险在商业银行经营和管理中的重要性正在、并且将会不断凸现。目前,我国商业银行的利率敏感性资产小于利率敏感性负债,重新定价缺口为负缺口,固定利率住房抵押贷款的推出使重新定价负缺口有进一步扩大的趋势。本文从边际的角度分析了固定利率住房抵押贷款对我国商业银行利率风险的影响。由于目标间的冲突,文章的结尾指出我国商业银行有实现战略转型,由目前短期内净利息收入最大化实现向股东权益价值最大化转变,同时兼顾监管时期内资本金条件约束的现实必要性与迫切性。     

A Futures Duration-Convexity Hedging Method

A duration-based hedge ratio is the conventional method to hedge against price changes of a fixed-income instrument. However, the relationship between bond prices and interest rates is nonlinear, creating a convexity effect. Moreover, term structure changes often are nonparallel in nature, which causes imperfect hedges for the duration-based hedging model. One solution to these problems is to dynamically change the duration-based hedge ratio; however, this procedure is costly and is not effective when jumps in prices occur. A superior solution is to develop a two-instrument hedge ratio that simultaneously hedges both duration and convexity effects. This paper first presents such a two-instrument hedge ratio and then we examine its effectiveness. The simulation results show that this duration-convexity hedge ratio is vastly superior to alternative hedge ratio methods for both simple and complex changes in the term structure.     

我国保单质押贷款业务的法律评析

保单质押贷款业务在近年快速发展，而我国现行法律对该业务的调整存在诸多空白。本文认为从质押业务法理分析，具有储金或现金价值的一切寿险或非寿险保单均可作为保单质押对象，但设质的财产权利应限于退保金或现金价值，不应包括保险金请求权。保单质押后，投保人、贷款人和保险人按照质押协议承担相应的权利和义务，同时，投保人在保险合同中享有的部分权利，当有可能减少或流失质物时，该项权利应被限制或冻结。     

The Effective Duration and Convexity of Liabilities for Property-Liability Insurers Under Stochastic Interest Rates

Managing interest rate risk for property-liability insurers requires appropriate measurement of the sensitivity of liabilities to movements in interest rates. Most prior studies have assumed that interest rates shift in a parallel fashion and that the cash flows from liabilities are unaffected by interest rate changes. This article recognizes that unpaid property-liability (P-L) insurance losses are inflation-sensitive, that movements in interest rates will affect future claim payouts due to the correlation between interest rates and inflation and that interest rates are stochastic. The effective duration and convexity of P-L insurance liabilities calculated based on this approach are substantially lower than those measured using traditional approaches, which has important implications for asset-liability management by P-L insurers.     

我国中小企业融资担保信用风险和补偿路径研究

构建中小企业信用担保机制是解决中小企业融资瓶颈的重要途径.作为金融市场的重要组成部分,中小企业信用担保市场承担着重要的金融功能.依据信用担保风险外部补偿理论,应建立以政府财政为主导的外部补偿机制,以实现我国中小企业信用担保的风险外部补偿目标.为应对各种不同程度风险的可能兑现,应建立有计划的信用担保风险自留机制.这种风险自留机制可以实现我国中小企业信用担保的风险内部补偿目标.     

Moral hazard and adverse selection in the originate-to-distribute model of bank credit

Bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold in the secondary market underperform their peers by about 9% per year (risk-adjusted) over the three-year period following the initial sale of their loans. Therefore, either banks are originating and selling loans of lower quality borrowers based on unobservable private information (adverse selection), and/or loan sales lead to diminished bank monitoring that affects borrowers negatively (moral hazard). We propose regulatory restrictions on loan sales, increased disclosure, and a loan trading exchange/clearinghouse as mechanisms to alleviate these problems.     

金融发展对科技创新影响的实证研究--基于北京市和上海市的比较分析

文章采用1991-2012年北京市和上海市的时间序列数据对金融发展与科技创新之间的关系进行实证研究。首先介绍北京市和上海市金融发展和科技创新的现状,其次构建模型进行协整分析检验,并采用格兰杰因果检验方法来说明金融发展对科技创新的影响,研究结果表明：北京市的金融发展能够促进科技创新,而科技创新并不能反过来促进金融发展,两者之间是单向因果关系;上海市金融发展与科技创新之间是双向因果关系,金融发展促进科技创新,科技创新也能反过来促进金融发展。最后提出优化发展环境,促进金融发展,营造金融生态环境,加快金融改革创新等相关建议。